Join us for a fascinating conversation with Dr. Stephen Herzog as we explore the intricate landscape of nuclear strategy, from the fundamentals of deterrence theory to the geopolitics of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. We dive deep into pressing questions about who should have access to nuclear weapons, how arms control agreements shape global security, and what emerging technologies mean for the future of nuclear governance.
Chapters
01:57 – Types and Categories of Nuclear Weapons
08:40 – Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Historical and Contemporary Contexts
10:32 – Understanding the Concept of Existential Deterrence
16:39 – Extended Deterrence and the Logic of Alliance Security
25:54 – The NPT and the Persistence of Great Power Monopoly
31:53 – Treaty Reform or Status Quo? The Politics of Nuclear Governance
33:12 – Aspirant States and the Quest for Nuclear Capability
34:47 – Escalation Control: Between Arms Agreements and Overconfidence
43:15 – The Dilemma of Quantity: Many vs. Few Nuclear Weapons
50:38 – Authority and Legitimacy: Who Decides Nuclear Access?
55:58 – Technological Challenges to Nuclear Security and Control
Stephen Herzog
Dr. Stephen Herzog is a leading expert in nuclear nonproliferation and arms control, serving as Professor of the Practice at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. He is also an Associate of the Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard Kennedy School of Government. Dr. Herzog brings a unique blend of academic expertise and practical policymaking experience, having previously served as a U.S. Department of Energy technical nuclear arms control official, where he worked directly on the implementation and verification of nuclear agreements.
Selected Publications:
Herzog, S., Arceneaux, G.D. and Ariel (2025). Atomic Backfires. MIT Press.
Allison, D.M. and Herzog, S. (2025). Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: The Technological Arms Race for (In)visibility. Risk Analysis. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70105.
Allison, D.M. and Herzog, S. (2020). ‘What about China?’ and the threat to US–Russian nuclear arms control. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 76(4), pp.200–205. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2020.1778370.
Smetana, M., Sukin, L., Herzog, S. and Marek Vranka (2025). Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use. European Journal of International Security, pp.1–21. doi:https://doi.org/10.1017/eis.2025.10031.
Sukin, L., Herzog, S. and Lanoszka, A. (2025). Winning Hearts and Minds? How the United States Reassured During the Russo-Ukrainian War. Journal of Conflict Resolution. doi:https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251363229.
Herzog, S. (2024). The Trilateral Dilemma: Great Power Competition, Global Nuclear Order, and Russia’s War on Ukraine. Peace Review, pp.1–14. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/10402659.2024.2401058.
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